引用自：http://wong625.mysinablog.com/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=2156713
有一天，我指示秘書，把一份帳單，遞交給我的直系上司，作最後審閱。
秘書問我：「其實那上司次次都不會認真看那些帳單，為何我們還要給他審閱？」
「您錯了。」我沒有望著秘書，但續說：「這是一個權力與尊重的問題。」
我遂叫秘書關門，給了她一些道理。
無論是在一間公司、一個機構、一個組織、一個政府，當中每一個職位，都有其賦予的權力。每個職位的權力，不一定來自其職位的名銜。而每一個職位，都可以有其「隱藏」的權力。而權力和地位，是怎樣彰顯出來的？不是您貴為某部門主管，就一定擁有權力。權力的彰顯，是要透過使用權力中，下達命令，而該命令被獲得執行，這就代表您的權力，得以施展，得以彰顯。
我們，一定嘗過一個經驗。就是在公司內，有同級的同事，不時給予您指示和指令，要您做東做西，但職權上對方未必有真正對您下達命令的權力。對方透過對您下達命令，純粹是向您展示其權力，向您展示其地位。而您又問，既然對方和自己是同級，為何對方又斗膽對自己下達命令？這可能是因為對方有其後台撐腰，狐假虎威。這些，就是所謂「隱藏」的權力。您一定要看得清楚，這些信號只會埋藏在角落處。當然有些人，往往只是恐嚇新人，並無任何實權和後台，但您也不能掉以輕心。因為，對方可能是一名小人。若您作為新人，免得過就最好不要一開始得罪小人。待以後自己建立威信後，慢慢才剿滅這些無用的螞蟻。
剛才，秘書問我應否再繼續把一些帳單交給上頭作最後審閱，我的答案是肯定的。上頭對這些理應多餘的審閱，無錯是會有煩厭感，但上頭平時處處沒有仔細審閱那些帳單，從正面的角度是信賴我的工作準備，再不至再勞神再一次檢閱。而本身「呈上帳單作最後審閱」這份差事，亦是上述權力彰顯的一部份。這是透過一些形式，來展示權力和地位的問題。我把文件呈上，是代表我「甘於」「承認」上頭的權力和地位。
有些事情，做了出來，可以讓上頭感覺被「彰顯」其權力感，下級亦可以順勢「彰顯」其服從性、歸順性，和永無作亂之心，一舉三「德」。
我們，尤其是一些秘書，很多時犯了一個毛病。就是見到老細不仔細看某些文件，或每次呈上某些文件他都覺得您再煩著他，下級的人在下一次就避免或減少再呈上那些文件。那是大錯特錯。老細對某些文件感煩厭，就尤得他。這不是您要考慮的問題，亦不是您的工作範圍；您的工作範圍，是根據需要和一向的指示或慣例，呈上應被呈上的文件。老細有任何不悅，都只會是短暫，所帶有的負能量也不會太多。但老細因一次您沒有呈上該呈上的文件，而對您作出猜忌，是不值得的：那些暗裏作出猜忌，而引起對你所帶有的負能量，才是長遠，才是致命的。
我一向覺得，文明的人類，其實和一般兇禽猛獸，沒有分別。人類和猛獸最大的分別，我覺得只是人類懂得用衣服遮著自己的性器官。在原野上，無論是獅子老虎，以至貓狗老鼠，都一定會在自己的地盤範圍邊緣，四處射尿或留下自己的糞便，或純粹留下自己的氣味，來對外界「宣示主權」。一隻獅子嗅到另一隻更強壯的獅子的味道，識趣的自然會兜路走。其他不知情或看不到「信號」的動物，硬膠膠的走入其地盤，將會成為獅子血盤海口下的糕點。
因此，我一向覺得，辦公室是一塊，十分骯髒的地方。
因為每一個不同階級的人，都會在每一個不同的地方，射尿。
2010年1月31日 星期日
Excerpt from "How I Raised Myself from Failure to Success in Selling"
按：看Frank Bettger 的 How I Raised Myself from Failure to Success in Selling，獲益良多。謝謝您，Bettger 先生！
Gentlemen, after all, this business of selling narrows down to one thing - just one thing... seeing the people! Show me any man of ordinary ability who will go out and earnestly tell his story to four or five people every day, and I will show you a man who just can't help making good!
The best way I ever found to help overcome fear and rapidly develop courage and self-confidence is by speaking before groups. I discovered that when I lost my fear of speaking to audiences, I lost my fear of talking to individuals, no matter how big and important they were. This training and experience in public speaking got me out of my shell, opened my eyes to my own possibilities, and widened my horizons. It was one of the turning points in my career.
Whenever he talked about it being too much money for him to pay out, I talked more, asked more questions, about the wonderful work his foreign missionaries were doing.
The most important secret of salesmanship is to find out what the other fellow wants, then help him find the best way to get it.
"Mr. Booth, if you were my own brother, I would say to you what I'm going to say to you now."
Then that small voice whispered in my ear: "Tomorrow morning, nothing! You'll do it right now! You know how you lack confidence when you go out unprepared. This man has agreed to an appointment with you, Bettger. Let's prepare! and go over there with a winning attitude!"
In preparation for the interview, I imagined myself a salaried employee of Mr. Booth's company. I assumed the role of "assistant buyer in charge of insurance."
People don't like to be sold. They like to buy.
"If you can't boost, don't knock" is always a safe rule. I've found it is one of the quickest confidence-gainers. Try to say something good about the other fellow.
in answering I began by observing that in certain cases or circumstances his opinion would be right, but in the present case there appear'd or seem'd to me some difference
In 62 percent of the cases, the original objection raised against buying was not the real reason at all. I found that only 38 percent of the time did the prospect give me the real reason for not buying
A man generally has two reasons for doing a thing - one that sounds good, and a real one... Eventually, I hit on a simple little phrase ... That phrase is: "In addition to that..."
the importance of being a good listener, showing the other person you are sincerely interested in what he is saying, and giving him all the eager attention and appreciation that he craves and is so hungry for, but seldom gets!
Benjamin Franklin: "I will speak ill of no man - and speak all the good I know of everybody."
I find that people love to hear that they have helped you.
Here is a question I have used countless times: "How did you ever get started in this business, Mr. Roth?"
After I leave him, I make notes of many of these things: where he was born, his wife's name, names of his children, his ambitions, and hobbies. I have these records on cards in my files dating back twenty-five years.
Before entering a man's office I would pause for an instant and think of the many things I had to be thankful for, work up a great big, honest-to-goodness smile, and then enter the room with the smile just vanishing from my face. It was easy then to turn on a big, happy smile. Seldom did it fail to get the same kind of smile in return from the person I met on the inside.
I've found it pleases people when I pass them on the street to give them a big, cheerful smile, and merely say: "Mr. Thomas!" It means so much more to them than the usual, "Good morning...
to forget myself, and concentrate as hard as I could on the other person, his face, and his name. This helped me overcome self-consciousness when meeting strangers.
if you want to make sure that he remembers your name, you can usually find an opportunity to repeat your own name -perhaps something like this: "... and he said to me, 'Mr. Bettger, we've just had one of the best years.'"
When meeting anyone we haven't seen for a long time, I think it is best to mention our own name immediately.
In my work as a salesman, I've found it a great asset to remember not only the names of clients and prospects, but names of secretaries, phone operators, and other associates. Speaking to them by name makes them feel important.
When you're scared... admit it!
They dislike salesmen who keep them in suspense about who they are, whom they represent, and what they want... They admire the salesman who is natural, sincere, and honest in his approach, and who comes right to the point about the purpose of his call.
If the salesman calls without an appointment, they like him to ask if it is convenient to talk now, rather than start right off on a sales talk.
If I should drop in on a man, without an appointment, I simply say: "Mr. Wilson, my name is Bettger, Frank Bettger, of the Fidelity Mutual Life Insurance Company. Your friend, Vic Ridenour, asked me to stop in and see you the next time I was in your neighborhood. Can you talk for a few minutes now, or would you rather I call later?"
Usually he will say: "Go ahead" or, "What did you want to talk to me about?"
"You!" is my reply.
"What about me?" he generally asks.
Right there is the critical moment of the approach. If you're not prepared to answer this question immediately, and satisfactorily, you had better not make the call at all!
If you indicate that you want to sell him something that will cost him money, you are virtually telling him that you want to increase his problems. He is already worrying about how to pay all the bills in his desk drawer, and how to hold down his expenses. If you want to discuss some vital problem of his, he is anxious to talk with an open mind about any idea that may help him solve that problem. The housewife doesn't have time to talk to a salesman about buying a new refrigerator, but she is worried about the high cost of meat, butter, eggs, milk. She is vitally interested in hearing about how she can cut down waste, and reduce the cost of food. A busy young man is not interested in joining the Junior Chamber of Commerce, but he is tremendously interested in making more friends, in becoming better known and more highly regarded in his community, and in the possibility of increasing his income.
"In my twenty-five years of selling," he went on to tell me, "the best approach I ever found was to first find out about a prospect's hobby, and then talk about that hobby."
I find that I get into the questions more smoothly by waiting until my prospect is answering my first question before removing the questionnaire from my pocket. I do this while I am looking straight at him and listening with great interest...
Here are some of the intimate questions that I do not hesitate to ask:
What minimum monthly income would your wife need in the event of your death?
Minimum monthly income for yourself at age sixty-five?
What is the present value of your estate?
Stocks, bonds, other securities?
Real estate? (mortgages)
Cash on hand?
Earned annual income?
Your life insurance?
How much do you pay out each year for insurance?
..
I put the paper back in my pocket in the same manner that I take it out. My last question is (with a smile): "What do you do when you are not working, Mr. Kothe? In other words, do you have a hobby?"...
While he is answering that question I return the questionnaire to my pocket. I never show it to the prospect in the first interview. His curiosity in the meantime will develop to such an extent that it will improve my chances in the second interview. After I complete the information, I get out as soon as I can. I say: "Thank you for your confidence, Mr. Kothe. I am going to give this some thought. I think I've got an idea that may be of value to you, and after I work it out, I'll give you a call for an appointment. Is that satisfactory?"
he invariably asks: "What is it you want to see me about?"
There is the critical moment of the approach. As sure as I indicate that I want to sell something, I'm licked right there, and the chances of getting an appointment later are ruined. The truth of it is, I may not know whether he needs what I am selling.
..
Me:.. Dick suggested that I ought to know you. I know you are busy but I wonder if I may see you for about five minutes one day this week?
...
Me:.. If I try to sell you anything, it will be your fault, not mine. May I see you for a few minutes tomorrow morning, say, about nine o'clock?
...
Me: Well, if I take longer than five minutes, it will be your fault, not mine.
...
The next morning as I shook hands with him in his office, I took out my watch and said: "You've got another appointment at nine-thirty, so I'm going to limit myself to exactly five minutes."..."Well, my five minutes are up. Is there anything else you would like to tell me, Mr. Aley?"
Difficult men to see
--------------------------
"Mr. Brown, is there any best time to see you - early morning, or late afternoon?"
"Is early in the week, or late in the week better?"
"May I see you this evening?"
"What time do you go to lunch? Let's have lunch together one day this week. Will you have lunch with tomorrow at the Union League, say about twelve or twelve-thirty?"
If he is extremely pressed for time, but sincere about being willing to see me, I sometimes ask: "Have you got your car in town today?" If he says "no," I offer to drive him home in my car. I say: "it will give us a few minutes together."
I've been surprised how many men who are unwilling to make a definite appointment will agree to see me if I set the time far enough in advance. For example, on Friday mornings when I am planning my week's work ahead, if I phone and say: "Mr. Jones, I will be in your neighborhood next Wednesday; do you mind if I stop in and see you?" he will generally agree. Then I ask him whether morning or afternoon is better, and sometimes he will name an hour.
--------------------------
"Miss Mallets, good morning! This is Mr. Bettger. I wonder if you could work me into Mr. Hawshaw's schedule for twenty minutes today, or sometime this week?"
Most salesman find it necessary from time to time to submit figures to customers. I've found it far more effective when I can get the customer to do the figuring.
"New customers are the best source of new business. ... New customers are enthusiastic and happy about their new purchase, especially a new convenience they are using. Usually they are excited about it, and proud. They are anxious to tell their friends and neighbors about it."
When is the best time to follow a referred lead? Within six days? Or six weeks? Six minutes, I've found best, or just as soon as it is possible for me to get there.
Closing sales
--------------------------
In my eagerness to sell, I had been using closing points too early in the interview. I learned that the average successful sale goes through four steps: (1) Attention, (2) Interest, (3) Desire, (4) Close. When I began holding my closing points back for the close, it enabled the prospect to judge my plan with an open mind... I found that suppressed excitement is most effective in arousing the prospect's enthusiasm at the close of the sale.
I discovered that a good summary affords the best basis for climax in selling
After presenting the plan, and summarizing it, I look at the prospect and ask: "How do you like it?"
It is surprising how frequently he answers: "I think I like it." I assume this means he is going to buy, so I don't wait another moment. I begin to ask the necessary questions and write his answers on the application form. I always begin with unimportant questions. Once he starts giving me the answers, he seldom balks.
For example: "I can't afford it... See me in January... See me in the spring... I want to think it over... I want to talk it over with my wife... Your price is too high. I can do better than that." I learned that objections like these are not turndowns.
--------------------------
Gentlemen, after all, this business of selling narrows down to one thing - just one thing... seeing the people! Show me any man of ordinary ability who will go out and earnestly tell his story to four or five people every day, and I will show you a man who just can't help making good!
The best way I ever found to help overcome fear and rapidly develop courage and self-confidence is by speaking before groups. I discovered that when I lost my fear of speaking to audiences, I lost my fear of talking to individuals, no matter how big and important they were. This training and experience in public speaking got me out of my shell, opened my eyes to my own possibilities, and widened my horizons. It was one of the turning points in my career.
Whenever he talked about it being too much money for him to pay out, I talked more, asked more questions, about the wonderful work his foreign missionaries were doing.
The most important secret of salesmanship is to find out what the other fellow wants, then help him find the best way to get it.
"Mr. Booth, if you were my own brother, I would say to you what I'm going to say to you now."
Then that small voice whispered in my ear: "Tomorrow morning, nothing! You'll do it right now! You know how you lack confidence when you go out unprepared. This man has agreed to an appointment with you, Bettger. Let's prepare! and go over there with a winning attitude!"
In preparation for the interview, I imagined myself a salaried employee of Mr. Booth's company. I assumed the role of "assistant buyer in charge of insurance."
People don't like to be sold. They like to buy.
"If you can't boost, don't knock" is always a safe rule. I've found it is one of the quickest confidence-gainers. Try to say something good about the other fellow.
in answering I began by observing that in certain cases or circumstances his opinion would be right, but in the present case there appear'd or seem'd to me some difference
In 62 percent of the cases, the original objection raised against buying was not the real reason at all. I found that only 38 percent of the time did the prospect give me the real reason for not buying
A man generally has two reasons for doing a thing - one that sounds good, and a real one... Eventually, I hit on a simple little phrase ... That phrase is: "In addition to that..."
the importance of being a good listener, showing the other person you are sincerely interested in what he is saying, and giving him all the eager attention and appreciation that he craves and is so hungry for, but seldom gets!
Benjamin Franklin: "I will speak ill of no man - and speak all the good I know of everybody."
I find that people love to hear that they have helped you.
Here is a question I have used countless times: "How did you ever get started in this business, Mr. Roth?"
After I leave him, I make notes of many of these things: where he was born, his wife's name, names of his children, his ambitions, and hobbies. I have these records on cards in my files dating back twenty-five years.
Before entering a man's office I would pause for an instant and think of the many things I had to be thankful for, work up a great big, honest-to-goodness smile, and then enter the room with the smile just vanishing from my face. It was easy then to turn on a big, happy smile. Seldom did it fail to get the same kind of smile in return from the person I met on the inside.
I've found it pleases people when I pass them on the street to give them a big, cheerful smile, and merely say: "Mr. Thomas!" It means so much more to them than the usual, "Good morning...
to forget myself, and concentrate as hard as I could on the other person, his face, and his name. This helped me overcome self-consciousness when meeting strangers.
if you want to make sure that he remembers your name, you can usually find an opportunity to repeat your own name -perhaps something like this: "... and he said to me, 'Mr. Bettger, we've just had one of the best years.'"
When meeting anyone we haven't seen for a long time, I think it is best to mention our own name immediately.
In my work as a salesman, I've found it a great asset to remember not only the names of clients and prospects, but names of secretaries, phone operators, and other associates. Speaking to them by name makes them feel important.
When you're scared... admit it!
They dislike salesmen who keep them in suspense about who they are, whom they represent, and what they want... They admire the salesman who is natural, sincere, and honest in his approach, and who comes right to the point about the purpose of his call.
If the salesman calls without an appointment, they like him to ask if it is convenient to talk now, rather than start right off on a sales talk.
If I should drop in on a man, without an appointment, I simply say: "Mr. Wilson, my name is Bettger, Frank Bettger, of the Fidelity Mutual Life Insurance Company. Your friend, Vic Ridenour, asked me to stop in and see you the next time I was in your neighborhood. Can you talk for a few minutes now, or would you rather I call later?"
Usually he will say: "Go ahead" or, "What did you want to talk to me about?"
"You!" is my reply.
"What about me?" he generally asks.
Right there is the critical moment of the approach. If you're not prepared to answer this question immediately, and satisfactorily, you had better not make the call at all!
If you indicate that you want to sell him something that will cost him money, you are virtually telling him that you want to increase his problems. He is already worrying about how to pay all the bills in his desk drawer, and how to hold down his expenses. If you want to discuss some vital problem of his, he is anxious to talk with an open mind about any idea that may help him solve that problem. The housewife doesn't have time to talk to a salesman about buying a new refrigerator, but she is worried about the high cost of meat, butter, eggs, milk. She is vitally interested in hearing about how she can cut down waste, and reduce the cost of food. A busy young man is not interested in joining the Junior Chamber of Commerce, but he is tremendously interested in making more friends, in becoming better known and more highly regarded in his community, and in the possibility of increasing his income.
"In my twenty-five years of selling," he went on to tell me, "the best approach I ever found was to first find out about a prospect's hobby, and then talk about that hobby."
I find that I get into the questions more smoothly by waiting until my prospect is answering my first question before removing the questionnaire from my pocket. I do this while I am looking straight at him and listening with great interest...
Here are some of the intimate questions that I do not hesitate to ask:
What minimum monthly income would your wife need in the event of your death?
Minimum monthly income for yourself at age sixty-five?
What is the present value of your estate?
Stocks, bonds, other securities?
Real estate? (mortgages)
Cash on hand?
Earned annual income?
Your life insurance?
How much do you pay out each year for insurance?
..
I put the paper back in my pocket in the same manner that I take it out. My last question is (with a smile): "What do you do when you are not working, Mr. Kothe? In other words, do you have a hobby?"...
While he is answering that question I return the questionnaire to my pocket. I never show it to the prospect in the first interview. His curiosity in the meantime will develop to such an extent that it will improve my chances in the second interview. After I complete the information, I get out as soon as I can. I say: "Thank you for your confidence, Mr. Kothe. I am going to give this some thought. I think I've got an idea that may be of value to you, and after I work it out, I'll give you a call for an appointment. Is that satisfactory?"
he invariably asks: "What is it you want to see me about?"
There is the critical moment of the approach. As sure as I indicate that I want to sell something, I'm licked right there, and the chances of getting an appointment later are ruined. The truth of it is, I may not know whether he needs what I am selling.
..
Me:.. Dick suggested that I ought to know you. I know you are busy but I wonder if I may see you for about five minutes one day this week?
...
Me:.. If I try to sell you anything, it will be your fault, not mine. May I see you for a few minutes tomorrow morning, say, about nine o'clock?
...
Me: Well, if I take longer than five minutes, it will be your fault, not mine.
...
The next morning as I shook hands with him in his office, I took out my watch and said: "You've got another appointment at nine-thirty, so I'm going to limit myself to exactly five minutes."..."Well, my five minutes are up. Is there anything else you would like to tell me, Mr. Aley?"
Difficult men to see
--------------------------
"Mr. Brown, is there any best time to see you - early morning, or late afternoon?"
"Is early in the week, or late in the week better?"
"May I see you this evening?"
"What time do you go to lunch? Let's have lunch together one day this week. Will you have lunch with tomorrow at the Union League, say about twelve or twelve-thirty?"
If he is extremely pressed for time, but sincere about being willing to see me, I sometimes ask: "Have you got your car in town today?" If he says "no," I offer to drive him home in my car. I say: "it will give us a few minutes together."
I've been surprised how many men who are unwilling to make a definite appointment will agree to see me if I set the time far enough in advance. For example, on Friday mornings when I am planning my week's work ahead, if I phone and say: "Mr. Jones, I will be in your neighborhood next Wednesday; do you mind if I stop in and see you?" he will generally agree. Then I ask him whether morning or afternoon is better, and sometimes he will name an hour.
--------------------------
"Miss Mallets, good morning! This is Mr. Bettger. I wonder if you could work me into Mr. Hawshaw's schedule for twenty minutes today, or sometime this week?"
Most salesman find it necessary from time to time to submit figures to customers. I've found it far more effective when I can get the customer to do the figuring.
"New customers are the best source of new business. ... New customers are enthusiastic and happy about their new purchase, especially a new convenience they are using. Usually they are excited about it, and proud. They are anxious to tell their friends and neighbors about it."
When is the best time to follow a referred lead? Within six days? Or six weeks? Six minutes, I've found best, or just as soon as it is possible for me to get there.
Closing sales
--------------------------
In my eagerness to sell, I had been using closing points too early in the interview. I learned that the average successful sale goes through four steps: (1) Attention, (2) Interest, (3) Desire, (4) Close. When I began holding my closing points back for the close, it enabled the prospect to judge my plan with an open mind... I found that suppressed excitement is most effective in arousing the prospect's enthusiasm at the close of the sale.
I discovered that a good summary affords the best basis for climax in selling
After presenting the plan, and summarizing it, I look at the prospect and ask: "How do you like it?"
It is surprising how frequently he answers: "I think I like it." I assume this means he is going to buy, so I don't wait another moment. I begin to ask the necessary questions and write his answers on the application form. I always begin with unimportant questions. Once he starts giving me the answers, he seldom balks.
For example: "I can't afford it... See me in January... See me in the spring... I want to think it over... I want to talk it over with my wife... Your price is too high. I can do better than that." I learned that objections like these are not turndowns.
--------------------------
2010年1月29日 星期五
你留意到嗎？世界貿易結構正在轉變
The Chinese Consumer: An Unexpected Reraveling by Michael B. Krause
引用自：http://seekingalpha.com/article/184074-the-chinese-consumer-an-unexpected-reraveling
With the People's Bank of China starting to pull back liquidity and talk of even higher RMB interest rates on the horizon, we may be at a turning point in world trade where a latent and underestimated potential source of global aggregate demand is activated.
Simply summarized, the past policy of the Chinese government has been to subsidize its exporters by devaluing its own currency. It does this by buying US dollars on foreign exchange with newly printed RMB to keep the currency rate generally pegged. Doing this aggressively over the past decade, it has built enormous world capacity and stimulated world demand for the goods it produces.
By China saying it wants to decrease the rate of money supply increase (by restricting loans and raising interest rates), it is communicating to the world an end of this RMB devaluation policy, necessary to maintain their US dollar foreign exchange peg. The Chinese central bank can't have lower RMB money supply and a maintained US dollar peg, unless of course they make an agreement with the Fed to also reduce its money supply simultaneously. In this political and economic environment, this is an impossibility.
The People's Bank of China has two policy choices. The first is they can keep up the status quo, printing RMB to buy US Treasuries in order to continue to subsidize exporters, with the unwanted side effect of continued local price inflation and asset bubbles (real estate in particular). The alternative is that they raise interest rates and impose higher reserve requirements, reducing the rate of money growth. They have already embarked on this path, so there should be very little to guess (especially in the longer run) on where the RMB goes from here.
A stronger RMB means the US and Euro zone (China's largest trade partners) import less from China, while China imports more from the US and Euro zone. Such a change signifies a reversal of what many view a predatorial trade policy on the part of the Chinese. It also means the $2.4 trillion US dollars of accumulated reserves will have less buying power going forward.
In such a change, China's trade partners will have to deal with higher import prices, and will thus have lower GDP as a response. In the long run, their economies restructure and their exports increase (GDP rises). This reflects the J-curve model in international trade economics.
With China already the number one consumer of autos in the world, the Chinese consumer with the benefit of a strong currency would spell a voracious appetite for potential consumption. Certainly, with Chinese demand for transports growing at an exponential rate and global crude oil demand once again increasing, Chinese policymakers now have all the incentive in the world to let the RMB strengthen, keeping input and fuel costs under control, as global supplies of key commodities dwindle.
In the long run, a strong RMB means strong Chinese consumer demand, less price inflation in China, and increased exports (and thus economic growth) from the OECD. It also signifies a trend reversion of trade account deficits to possibly surplus, especially within the US. In a most extreme case where the Chinese government decided to sell off its stash of US dollar assets and then spend those dollars, a significant amount of latent aggregate demand is represented here. Contrary to Robert Samuelson's suggestion in Newsweek that "the massive disgorging of dollars could trigger another global economic collapse," it could in fact trigger quite the opposite, in the form of spending stimulus the US has never seen before. $2.4 trillion US dollars represent an enormous amount of real economic activity, and any near term economic risk a short term rise in interest rates would more than be offset by the increase in US GDP, employment rates, and correlating rising government tax revenues.
Inevitably, there are many undealt with moving parts here, resulting in more questions. Post-RMB revaluation, will the new strong Chinese consumer offset the losses the former Chinese exporter suffers? Will the surge in Chinese consumer demand be a one-off event, as their exporters languish? Will the US and Eurozone, with now weaker currencies, be able to be competitive exporters with the side effect of increased commodity costs? How long will it take for the US economy to restructure back into increased manufacturing and other industries clearly destroyed by Chinese predatorial trade subsidies? With a future US having increased real GDP activity and better government fiscal status resulting from corresponding increased tax revenues, a stronger US dollar may be a long run effect, contrary to any near term movement against the RMB.
The only near term certainty is that such a significant policy change will create volatility and result in enormous real economic change. An overshoot weakening of the US dollar would be likely. As well, gold may do well and US Treasuries may suffer (as a significant buyer disappears from the market).
Furthermore, since significant structural changes would need to occur in the US economy to adjust to a strong RMB, it may take a long time for exporters to adjust. This points to a lag in increased tax revenues. Short term, with a dollar devaluation, notional value of imports would increase, putting negative pressure on US GDP and making the US fiscal condition look all the more dire.
Inevitably, policymakers might invoke accelerated money printing and fiscal stimulus to ease the pain. Uncertainty may drive up inflation expectations as well, increasing the likelyhood of higher long run interest rates. Such an inflationary move in the US may be just what the doctor ordered, as nominal wages rise and accumulated debts currently stifling lending (reflecting bank insolvency) would be rendered non-issue.
引用自：http://seekingalpha.com/article/184074-the-chinese-consumer-an-unexpected-reraveling
With the People's Bank of China starting to pull back liquidity and talk of even higher RMB interest rates on the horizon, we may be at a turning point in world trade where a latent and underestimated potential source of global aggregate demand is activated.
Simply summarized, the past policy of the Chinese government has been to subsidize its exporters by devaluing its own currency. It does this by buying US dollars on foreign exchange with newly printed RMB to keep the currency rate generally pegged. Doing this aggressively over the past decade, it has built enormous world capacity and stimulated world demand for the goods it produces.
By China saying it wants to decrease the rate of money supply increase (by restricting loans and raising interest rates), it is communicating to the world an end of this RMB devaluation policy, necessary to maintain their US dollar foreign exchange peg. The Chinese central bank can't have lower RMB money supply and a maintained US dollar peg, unless of course they make an agreement with the Fed to also reduce its money supply simultaneously. In this political and economic environment, this is an impossibility.
The People's Bank of China has two policy choices. The first is they can keep up the status quo, printing RMB to buy US Treasuries in order to continue to subsidize exporters, with the unwanted side effect of continued local price inflation and asset bubbles (real estate in particular). The alternative is that they raise interest rates and impose higher reserve requirements, reducing the rate of money growth. They have already embarked on this path, so there should be very little to guess (especially in the longer run) on where the RMB goes from here.
A stronger RMB means the US and Euro zone (China's largest trade partners) import less from China, while China imports more from the US and Euro zone. Such a change signifies a reversal of what many view a predatorial trade policy on the part of the Chinese. It also means the $2.4 trillion US dollars of accumulated reserves will have less buying power going forward.
In such a change, China's trade partners will have to deal with higher import prices, and will thus have lower GDP as a response. In the long run, their economies restructure and their exports increase (GDP rises). This reflects the J-curve model in international trade economics.
With China already the number one consumer of autos in the world, the Chinese consumer with the benefit of a strong currency would spell a voracious appetite for potential consumption. Certainly, with Chinese demand for transports growing at an exponential rate and global crude oil demand once again increasing, Chinese policymakers now have all the incentive in the world to let the RMB strengthen, keeping input and fuel costs under control, as global supplies of key commodities dwindle.
In the long run, a strong RMB means strong Chinese consumer demand, less price inflation in China, and increased exports (and thus economic growth) from the OECD. It also signifies a trend reversion of trade account deficits to possibly surplus, especially within the US. In a most extreme case where the Chinese government decided to sell off its stash of US dollar assets and then spend those dollars, a significant amount of latent aggregate demand is represented here. Contrary to Robert Samuelson's suggestion in Newsweek that "the massive disgorging of dollars could trigger another global economic collapse," it could in fact trigger quite the opposite, in the form of spending stimulus the US has never seen before. $2.4 trillion US dollars represent an enormous amount of real economic activity, and any near term economic risk a short term rise in interest rates would more than be offset by the increase in US GDP, employment rates, and correlating rising government tax revenues.
Inevitably, there are many undealt with moving parts here, resulting in more questions. Post-RMB revaluation, will the new strong Chinese consumer offset the losses the former Chinese exporter suffers? Will the surge in Chinese consumer demand be a one-off event, as their exporters languish? Will the US and Eurozone, with now weaker currencies, be able to be competitive exporters with the side effect of increased commodity costs? How long will it take for the US economy to restructure back into increased manufacturing and other industries clearly destroyed by Chinese predatorial trade subsidies? With a future US having increased real GDP activity and better government fiscal status resulting from corresponding increased tax revenues, a stronger US dollar may be a long run effect, contrary to any near term movement against the RMB.
The only near term certainty is that such a significant policy change will create volatility and result in enormous real economic change. An overshoot weakening of the US dollar would be likely. As well, gold may do well and US Treasuries may suffer (as a significant buyer disappears from the market).
Furthermore, since significant structural changes would need to occur in the US economy to adjust to a strong RMB, it may take a long time for exporters to adjust. This points to a lag in increased tax revenues. Short term, with a dollar devaluation, notional value of imports would increase, putting negative pressure on US GDP and making the US fiscal condition look all the more dire.
Inevitably, policymakers might invoke accelerated money printing and fiscal stimulus to ease the pain. Uncertainty may drive up inflation expectations as well, increasing the likelyhood of higher long run interest rates. Such an inflationary move in the US may be just what the doctor ordered, as nominal wages rise and accumulated debts currently stifling lending (reflecting bank insolvency) would be rendered non-issue.
2010年1月2日 星期六
What I Have Lived For – Prologue of Bertrand Russell’s Autobiography
Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind. These passions, like great winds, have blown me hither and thither, in a wayward course, over a great ocean of anguish, reaching to the very verge of despair.
I have sought love, first, because it brings ecstasy - ecstasy so great that I would often have sacrificed all the rest of life for a few hours of this joy. I have sought it, next, because it relieves loneliness - that terrible loneliness in which one shivering consciousness looks over the rim of the world into the cold unfathomable lifeless abyss. I have sought it finally, because in the union of love I have seen, in a mystic miniature, the prefiguring vision of the heaven that saints and poets have imagined. This is what I sought, and though it might seem too good for human life, this is what - at last - I have found.
With equal passion I have sought knowledge. I have wished to understand the hearts of men. I have wished to know why the stars shine. And I have tried to apprehend the Pythagorean power by which number holds sway above the flux. A little of this, but not much, I have achieved.
Love and knowledge, so far as they were possible, led upward toward the heavens. But always pity brought me back to earth. Echoes of cries of pain reverberate in my heart. Children in famine, victims tortured by oppressors, helpless old people a hated burden to their sons, and the whole world of loneliness, poverty, and pain make a mockery of what human life should be. I long to alleviate this evil, but I cannot, and I too suffer.
This has been my life. I have found it worth living, and would gladly live it again if the chance were offered me.
蘇軾《前赤壁賦》
按：壬戌，一○八二年。蘇學士的文章，豪放而睿智。蘇子，千年一遇之天才也，詩詞書畫皆出類拔萃。我自小常思生命之義，懼死後之無。茫茫宇宙中，忽然一個我，數十年後便消失，像從沒存在過一樣。讀了這篇文章，始釋然。
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壬戌之秋，七月既望，蘇子與客泛舟遊於赤壁之下，清風徐來，水波不興；舉酒屬客，誦明月之詩，歌窈窕之章。少焉，月出於東山之上，徘徊於斗牛之間；白露橫江，水光接天；縱一葦之所如，凌萬頃之茫然；浩浩乎如馮虛御風而不知其所止，飄飄乎如遺世獨立，羽化而登仙。
於是飲酒樂甚，扣舷而歌之，歌曰：「桂棹兮蘭槳，擊空明兮泝流光。渺渺兮予懷，望美人兮天一方。」
客有吹洞簫者，倚歌而和之。其聲嗚嗚然，如怨、如慕、如泣、如訴；餘音嫋嫋，不絕如縷；舞幽壑之潛蛟，泣孤舟之嫠婦。蘇子愀然，正襟危坐而問客曰：「何為其然也？」
客曰：「『月明星稀，烏鵲南飛』，此非曹孟德之詩乎？西望夏口，東望武昌，山川相繆，鬱乎蒼蒼，此非孟德之困於周郎者乎？方其破荊州，下江陵，順流而東也，舳艫千里，旌旗蔽空，釃酒臨江，橫槊賦詩，固一世之雄也，而今安在哉！況吾與子漁樵於江渚之上，侶魚蝦而友糜鹿；駕一葉之扁舟，舉匏樽以相屬；寄蜉蝣於天地，渺滄海之一粟。哀吾生之須臾，羨長江之無窮。挾飛仙以遨遊，抱明月而長終；知不可乎驟得，託遺響於悲風。」
蘇子曰：「客亦知夫水與月乎？逝者如斯，而未嘗往也；盈虛者如彼，而卒莫消長也。蓋將自其變者而觀之，則天地曾不能以一瞬；自其不變者而觀之，則物與我皆無盡也，而又何羨乎？且夫天地之間，物各有主；苟非吾之所有，雖一毫而莫取。惟江上之清風，與山間之明月；耳得之而為聲，目遇之而成色；取之無禁，用之不竭。是造物者之無盡藏也，而吾與子之所共適。」
客喜而笑，洗盞更酌。肴核既盡，杯盤狼藉。相與枕藉乎舟中，不知東方之既白。
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壬戌之秋，七月既望，蘇子與客泛舟遊於赤壁之下，清風徐來，水波不興；舉酒屬客，誦明月之詩，歌窈窕之章。少焉，月出於東山之上，徘徊於斗牛之間；白露橫江，水光接天；縱一葦之所如，凌萬頃之茫然；浩浩乎如馮虛御風而不知其所止，飄飄乎如遺世獨立，羽化而登仙。
於是飲酒樂甚，扣舷而歌之，歌曰：「桂棹兮蘭槳，擊空明兮泝流光。渺渺兮予懷，望美人兮天一方。」
客有吹洞簫者，倚歌而和之。其聲嗚嗚然，如怨、如慕、如泣、如訴；餘音嫋嫋，不絕如縷；舞幽壑之潛蛟，泣孤舟之嫠婦。蘇子愀然，正襟危坐而問客曰：「何為其然也？」
客曰：「『月明星稀，烏鵲南飛』，此非曹孟德之詩乎？西望夏口，東望武昌，山川相繆，鬱乎蒼蒼，此非孟德之困於周郎者乎？方其破荊州，下江陵，順流而東也，舳艫千里，旌旗蔽空，釃酒臨江，橫槊賦詩，固一世之雄也，而今安在哉！況吾與子漁樵於江渚之上，侶魚蝦而友糜鹿；駕一葉之扁舟，舉匏樽以相屬；寄蜉蝣於天地，渺滄海之一粟。哀吾生之須臾，羨長江之無窮。挾飛仙以遨遊，抱明月而長終；知不可乎驟得，託遺響於悲風。」
蘇子曰：「客亦知夫水與月乎？逝者如斯，而未嘗往也；盈虛者如彼，而卒莫消長也。蓋將自其變者而觀之，則天地曾不能以一瞬；自其不變者而觀之，則物與我皆無盡也，而又何羨乎？且夫天地之間，物各有主；苟非吾之所有，雖一毫而莫取。惟江上之清風，與山間之明月；耳得之而為聲，目遇之而成色；取之無禁，用之不竭。是造物者之無盡藏也，而吾與子之所共適。」
客喜而笑，洗盞更酌。肴核既盡，杯盤狼藉。相與枕藉乎舟中，不知東方之既白。
《般若波羅蜜多心經》唐‧玄奘譯
觀自在菩薩，行深般若波羅蜜多時，照見五蘊皆空，度一切苦厄。舍利子，色不異空，空不異色，色即是空，空即是色，受想行識， 亦復如是。舍利子，是諸法空相，不生不滅， 不垢不淨，不增不減。是故空中無色，無受想行識，無眼耳鼻舌身意，無色聲香味觸法， 無眼界，乃至無意識界，無無明，亦無無明盡，乃至無老死，亦無老死盡。無苦集滅道， 無智亦無得，以無所得故。菩提薩埵，依般若波羅蜜多故，心無掛礙，無掛礙故，無有恐怖，遠離顛倒夢想，究竟涅槃。三世諸佛， 依般若波羅蜜多故，得阿耨多羅三藐三菩提。故知般若波羅蜜多是大神咒，是大明咒， 是無上咒，是無等等咒，能除一切苦，真實不虛。故說般若波羅蜜多咒，即說咒曰：揭諦揭諦，波羅揭諦，波羅僧揭諦，菩提娑婆訶。
殷海光《人生的意義》
按：殷海光先生當年在台灣堅持學者的風骨，不隨波逐流，被執政黨逼害。我對先生的堅持，由衷敬佩。這篇文章是我預科中文科的指定文章，很是喜歡。殷海光與羅素一樣，思想清晣，文章脈絡次序井然。
今天是一九六六年四月八日，我今天要跟大家談的問題是「人生的意義」。我為甚度選這個問題呢？這有兩個理由：第一個理由是我個人是非常喜歡思考的。從少年時代到青年時代，從青年時代到中年時代，都是不停的想問題，對人生的辛酸波折也經歷過一些。因此把我所想的人生的意義是甚麼，人生的道路是甚麼陳示出來，給各位參考；我只說參考，但我沒有說各位一定要採取我的人生觀和人生的意義。人生的意義是各人自已的。我只是把我的提供各位參考而已。第二個理由：就我觀察所及，我們正處在一個轉型的社會，我們的文化在蛻變中，而且這個世界是這樣的擾攘不安，差不多的人實實在在說來心靈都是失落了：失落在街頭，失落在彈子房，失落在電影院，失落在會客室裏，種種的失落。他們的心靈是不凝煉，不堅強的。比如說，有些體育家，運動家，他們的個子是蠻大的，打人蠻行的．但他的心靈很脆弱。譬如說，他們稍微把一句話說錯了，就怕這個人不喜歡吧，怕那個人被得罪了。這充分表現出心靈的脆弱。假如我們具有強健的身體而心靈如此脆弱，這是很可悲的，我們只有做別人的工具。這是時代的厄運。為了免於這一厄運，所以我願意把我自己的想法提供出來。
我們現在看這個表(如下)，這就是今天討論這個問題的基礎．並以此為範圍。人生是有很多層次的，此處我只能簡略的說。首先要說的是物理層。任何人無法不受物理定律的支配。如果有人活得不耐煩的話，他從樓上跳下來，非傷即死，毫無問題的。那就是受物理定律的支配。人是有限的動物，雖然有時覺得自己是無限的，那大概是太狂妄了。這層是用不著多說了。第二層是生物邏輯層。人不僅是物而且是生物，是有生命的。有生命則不能不受生物法則的支配，如呼吸，心臟的搏動，肌肉的收縮都是受生理法則的支配，沒有人能例外。我們就是這種構造的。可是，在這層有一種特別的現象，這在別的生物裏是不發達的 即使不是沒有的話。這就是一個生物文化的界域。我們是一種生物，有許多是需要必須滿足的，如吃飯喝水，到一定的歲數要結婚，所謂「窈窕淑女，君子好逑，求之不得，輾轉反側」，那麼難過，這都屬生物邏輯層。固然，別的生物也都要吃東西，尋配偶。但它們與人有大不同之處：它們是赤裸裸的，沒有文化，人則不同，吃東西要講禮貌，有不同的分殊，不同的形式。就穿衣而論，我不相信任何一位小姐，本來就像孔雀般美麗，而是藉各種物質的工具來補足其美。人為了禦寒有棉、皮革、尼龍、奧龍、達克龍。這都是生物文化層的東西。我們滿足人類之生物文化。但人類的生存並非發展到此結束的。人是有「意識」的。這最關重要。別的生物大概沒有，至少到現在為止大概尚未發展到這地步。這在生物發展的過程中是一個很重要的關鍵。別的生物大概不知道自身的生死問題，人則知道，曉得有生就有死。彭祖長壽，但到了八百歲時依然要死。而且人都怕死，但上帝絕不因此多留你一天，打針吃藥於事無補。由於我們有死的意識，便產生許多神話，許多禮儀。
就這樣，慢慢的發展，擴充我們的界域，由單純的物理層，進為生物邏輯層，再由此發展到生物文化界，繼續發展。然後人類有真善美的意識，有理想、有道德，這也就是價值層。這層就是人之所以為人的層級，生物邏輯層則是凡高等生物皆有。生物文化界別的高等動物雖可分享一部分，但人最多。唯最高層是人所獨有。我們講道德，追求理想，要創造理想社會，從柏拉圖的《理想國》，湯瑪斯穆爾的《烏托邦》，以至我們要追求真善美等等，這都是超生物邏輯的東西，借用黑格爾的話說是「精神的創造」。我想大概說來只有人類有精神的創造。這層是人所特有的。當然，人只是太空中的一種生物而已，將來星際交通發達了，在別的星球中可能有超人類存在。超人類的智慧是可能比人類發達得多。
現在我已把我要討論的基本架構說出。依此，我們討論人生的意義何在，人生的道路何在。人活在這世界上，首先必須要能生存。可是不同的文化價值，對這種需要的滿足方式是不同的。而且有的文化價值取向不把重點放在這上面。例如古代聖賢說：君子謀道不謀食。當我少年時，同學間常以為問舍求田的人，是沒有大志的。因為，當時大家只談理想，只談學問。萬一有人談錢，大家一定笑他的。這是當時一般知識分子的價值觀念。這也表示文化價值的重點之所在。又如古時有人說「餓死事小，失節事大」；「餓死首陽之山，義不食周粟」。這是認為生物需要不及道德價值之重要。尤其宋明理學家就是如此的。他們的想法高得很，但也空得很的。他們從不屑談這些經濟事務。但是，我們現在重視這個了。第二次世界大戰以後，亞非地區的人眾抬頭了。十九世紀末葉以迄二次世界大戰以前約八十年間非洲地區是白種人的殖民地，有色人種受白種人的輕視，尤其認為有色人種無論是體力、道德或天然的腦力都不如白人。可是，曾幾何時，現在非洲人受白人之哄抬。這個變化真非始料所及！亞非地區的人特別多，經濟落後，但是我並非認為經濟落後是罪惡。正好相反，不開發，不開馬路，漫步森林之中，享受天然之樂，豈不更好？現在，亞非地區受重視，卻經濟落後、知識水準低、貧困、饑荒，野心分子可用他們來擾亂世界和平。於是乎，自由國家要開發落後地區了。現在世界，無論何地均拚命經濟發展，刻意經營。這些努力無非在生物文化層。我並不是說這一層是可以忽略的。在實際上，我們不可能不經此層而跳至最上層。因為，如果騰空而起的話，高等精神文化的發展和道德實踐便失去支持。宋明理學的大病在此。他們的毛病在當時並不嚴重。因為吃飯問題不大，如朱熹，程頤，程顥等人在這方面都不成問題，頂多是有無肉吃的問題而已。因為他們有人供養，他們是士大夫階層。據貴校金耀基先生說，我們已經不是士大夫了。我聽後有股淡淡的哀愁！但是，落花流水春去也！又有甚麼辦法呢？以前我是會做秋夢的，以為身為士大夫，四民之首，好神氣！但現在不是了，一個月的收入不及華怡保的百分之一，因此你們可以說：殷海光，你的夢可以醒了！這樣我們便要面對現實了。當時朱熹可不如此，好愜意哦！到山上開家書院，自任山長。But now all gone！現在時代不同了，生活的需要多了。
我們的傳統文化價值取向把重點放在名教、儀制、倫序、德目的維繫這一層次上，而不太注重生物文化層。於是精神文化和現實生活脫了節。到頭來，我們的文化發展，像一座高樓似的，上一層的人在吹笙簫，底下一層勞動終日難得一飽，於是空了。整個文化建構都發生問題。這一歷史的教訓是值得今日的我們留意的。我舉一個現實的例子。經濟落後的地區要人來協助。肚子被人抓住了還有甚麼自由喲！我們的肚子被人控制，很多志氣便無法伸張，人的尊嚴便很難維持。有錢才能揚眉，才能吐氣。否則高尚的志趣，卓越的理想，都要收起來。人到屋簷下不能不低頭。所以我們必須充實生物文化層才能談上一層的價值。現在發展外銷，致力經濟起飛，在這種意義下是對的。
然而，我們現在的問題是：人生的意義，人生的目的，人生的價值，人生的道路是否就停在這一層呢？你如何把你與其他高等動物分別開？豐衣足食後是否安心在此停頓？人之所以為人是否這就夠了呢？這是要我們大學生，知識分子想的大問題。今天我們都受了時代沉悶空氣的壓力，擔心出路，許多人不愛想這類問題，視之為高調。我個人的境遇困難，但從未停止想這類問題，尤其在困難的時候更要想！前面所說的生物邏輯的條件沒有滿足時，固然到不了最上層。但滿足之後，高尚的理想和價值都可不要嗎？希臘出那麼多大哲學家、科學家、思想家，為後世之基礎，我們多麼嚮往啊！因為他們的精神生活是如此豐富。顯然得很，要人生完美，必須透過生物文化層再往上昇。生物文化層滿足了，我們還要真善美、理想、道德，這樣人生的道路才算完成。
這裏又生一個問題：假設我們已有很好的文化遺產，如中國的。就中國來說，我認為孟軻有氣象，他可說是一個標準的道德英雄；又如韓非子，思想那麼嚴格，觀察那麼銳利。如果他生在現代的話，就可能是一個邏輯家了。我們現在進一步提出一個問題：如果我們面臨一個兩難式，即是：如果我們要滿足衣食等生物邏輯，那麼勢必犧牲道德或理想；如果我們要維持道德或理想，那末勢必因難以滿足衣食等生物邏輯的要求而難以生存。處此困境之下，我們怎樣作決定？照現在的趨勢，一般人在有意無意之間，碰到求生與顧及道德不能兩全的情形，就為了求生而犧牲道德原則。有些人更因滿足自己的利益而犧牲道德，陷害別人。所以，道德就「江河日下」了。人吃粗一點尚可活下去。人群沒有道德來維繫，勢必難免成為「率獸食人」的世界。如何得了！在這樣的情形之下，我們怎樣處理？我以為孟夫子所倡導的「義」是救藥。他要人捨生而取義。這當然是一個極限原則。我們並不是說人必須動不動就犧牲生命來保全道德原則和崇高理想。我的意思是說：第一，我們萬不可在自己的生存並未受威脅時為了換取現實利益而犧牲道德原則。第二，在我們的生活勉強可過時萬不可因要得到較佳報酬而犧牲他人。第三，當我們因生活困難而被迫不得不放棄若干作人的原則時，我們必須儘可能作「道德的抗戰」，把道德的領土放棄的愈少愈好；而且要存心待機「收復道德的失地」。復次，我們有我們的好惡。如果經濟貧困了，我們的好惡是否就要放棄？是否就不能講？還有尊嚴問題，如人的經濟不能滿足，尊嚴是否可以不顧呢？諸如此類的問題，作為一個人，真值得想一想。
在各位現在這種年齡大家都有夢，胡適說，人生應該有夢，否則人生不是太不豐富嗎？現在你們都有理想，但出了社會便可能不同了，那時各奔前程，各種打擊，各種現實的考慮，都可能使得你把崇高的理想收斂起來。這就是現實在考驗我們的道德力，我們的理想性，我們對真對善對美的追求是否逼切。在世界上每一個角落都是如此的。我們是否能撐得住，就在這個關頭。現在是考驗我們的時候了。
今天是一九六六年四月八日，我今天要跟大家談的問題是「人生的意義」。我為甚度選這個問題呢？這有兩個理由：第一個理由是我個人是非常喜歡思考的。從少年時代到青年時代，從青年時代到中年時代，都是不停的想問題，對人生的辛酸波折也經歷過一些。因此把我所想的人生的意義是甚麼，人生的道路是甚麼陳示出來，給各位參考；我只說參考，但我沒有說各位一定要採取我的人生觀和人生的意義。人生的意義是各人自已的。我只是把我的提供各位參考而已。第二個理由：就我觀察所及，我們正處在一個轉型的社會，我們的文化在蛻變中，而且這個世界是這樣的擾攘不安，差不多的人實實在在說來心靈都是失落了：失落在街頭，失落在彈子房，失落在電影院，失落在會客室裏，種種的失落。他們的心靈是不凝煉，不堅強的。比如說，有些體育家，運動家，他們的個子是蠻大的，打人蠻行的．但他的心靈很脆弱。譬如說，他們稍微把一句話說錯了，就怕這個人不喜歡吧，怕那個人被得罪了。這充分表現出心靈的脆弱。假如我們具有強健的身體而心靈如此脆弱，這是很可悲的，我們只有做別人的工具。這是時代的厄運。為了免於這一厄運，所以我願意把我自己的想法提供出來。
我們現在看這個表(如下)，這就是今天討論這個問題的基礎．並以此為範圍。人生是有很多層次的，此處我只能簡略的說。首先要說的是物理層。任何人無法不受物理定律的支配。如果有人活得不耐煩的話，他從樓上跳下來，非傷即死，毫無問題的。那就是受物理定律的支配。人是有限的動物，雖然有時覺得自己是無限的，那大概是太狂妄了。這層是用不著多說了。第二層是生物邏輯層。人不僅是物而且是生物，是有生命的。有生命則不能不受生物法則的支配，如呼吸，心臟的搏動，肌肉的收縮都是受生理法則的支配，沒有人能例外。我們就是這種構造的。可是，在這層有一種特別的現象，這在別的生物裏是不發達的 即使不是沒有的話。這就是一個生物文化的界域。我們是一種生物，有許多是需要必須滿足的，如吃飯喝水，到一定的歲數要結婚，所謂「窈窕淑女，君子好逑，求之不得，輾轉反側」，那麼難過，這都屬生物邏輯層。固然，別的生物也都要吃東西，尋配偶。但它們與人有大不同之處：它們是赤裸裸的，沒有文化，人則不同，吃東西要講禮貌，有不同的分殊，不同的形式。就穿衣而論，我不相信任何一位小姐，本來就像孔雀般美麗，而是藉各種物質的工具來補足其美。人為了禦寒有棉、皮革、尼龍、奧龍、達克龍。這都是生物文化層的東西。我們滿足人類之生物文化。但人類的生存並非發展到此結束的。人是有「意識」的。這最關重要。別的生物大概沒有，至少到現在為止大概尚未發展到這地步。這在生物發展的過程中是一個很重要的關鍵。別的生物大概不知道自身的生死問題，人則知道，曉得有生就有死。彭祖長壽，但到了八百歲時依然要死。而且人都怕死，但上帝絕不因此多留你一天，打針吃藥於事無補。由於我們有死的意識，便產生許多神話，許多禮儀。
就這樣，慢慢的發展，擴充我們的界域，由單純的物理層，進為生物邏輯層，再由此發展到生物文化界，繼續發展。然後人類有真善美的意識，有理想、有道德，這也就是價值層。這層就是人之所以為人的層級，生物邏輯層則是凡高等生物皆有。生物文化界別的高等動物雖可分享一部分，但人最多。唯最高層是人所獨有。我們講道德，追求理想，要創造理想社會，從柏拉圖的《理想國》，湯瑪斯穆爾的《烏托邦》，以至我們要追求真善美等等，這都是超生物邏輯的東西，借用黑格爾的話說是「精神的創造」。我想大概說來只有人類有精神的創造。這層是人所特有的。當然，人只是太空中的一種生物而已，將來星際交通發達了，在別的星球中可能有超人類存在。超人類的智慧是可能比人類發達得多。
現在我已把我要討論的基本架構說出。依此，我們討論人生的意義何在，人生的道路何在。人活在這世界上，首先必須要能生存。可是不同的文化價值，對這種需要的滿足方式是不同的。而且有的文化價值取向不把重點放在這上面。例如古代聖賢說：君子謀道不謀食。當我少年時，同學間常以為問舍求田的人，是沒有大志的。因為，當時大家只談理想，只談學問。萬一有人談錢，大家一定笑他的。這是當時一般知識分子的價值觀念。這也表示文化價值的重點之所在。又如古時有人說「餓死事小，失節事大」；「餓死首陽之山，義不食周粟」。這是認為生物需要不及道德價值之重要。尤其宋明理學家就是如此的。他們的想法高得很，但也空得很的。他們從不屑談這些經濟事務。但是，我們現在重視這個了。第二次世界大戰以後，亞非地區的人眾抬頭了。十九世紀末葉以迄二次世界大戰以前約八十年間非洲地區是白種人的殖民地，有色人種受白種人的輕視，尤其認為有色人種無論是體力、道德或天然的腦力都不如白人。可是，曾幾何時，現在非洲人受白人之哄抬。這個變化真非始料所及！亞非地區的人特別多，經濟落後，但是我並非認為經濟落後是罪惡。正好相反，不開發，不開馬路，漫步森林之中，享受天然之樂，豈不更好？現在，亞非地區受重視，卻經濟落後、知識水準低、貧困、饑荒，野心分子可用他們來擾亂世界和平。於是乎，自由國家要開發落後地區了。現在世界，無論何地均拚命經濟發展，刻意經營。這些努力無非在生物文化層。我並不是說這一層是可以忽略的。在實際上，我們不可能不經此層而跳至最上層。因為，如果騰空而起的話，高等精神文化的發展和道德實踐便失去支持。宋明理學的大病在此。他們的毛病在當時並不嚴重。因為吃飯問題不大，如朱熹，程頤，程顥等人在這方面都不成問題，頂多是有無肉吃的問題而已。因為他們有人供養，他們是士大夫階層。據貴校金耀基先生說，我們已經不是士大夫了。我聽後有股淡淡的哀愁！但是，落花流水春去也！又有甚麼辦法呢？以前我是會做秋夢的，以為身為士大夫，四民之首，好神氣！但現在不是了，一個月的收入不及華怡保的百分之一，因此你們可以說：殷海光，你的夢可以醒了！這樣我們便要面對現實了。當時朱熹可不如此，好愜意哦！到山上開家書院，自任山長。But now all gone！現在時代不同了，生活的需要多了。
我們的傳統文化價值取向把重點放在名教、儀制、倫序、德目的維繫這一層次上，而不太注重生物文化層。於是精神文化和現實生活脫了節。到頭來，我們的文化發展，像一座高樓似的，上一層的人在吹笙簫，底下一層勞動終日難得一飽，於是空了。整個文化建構都發生問題。這一歷史的教訓是值得今日的我們留意的。我舉一個現實的例子。經濟落後的地區要人來協助。肚子被人抓住了還有甚麼自由喲！我們的肚子被人控制，很多志氣便無法伸張，人的尊嚴便很難維持。有錢才能揚眉，才能吐氣。否則高尚的志趣，卓越的理想，都要收起來。人到屋簷下不能不低頭。所以我們必須充實生物文化層才能談上一層的價值。現在發展外銷，致力經濟起飛，在這種意義下是對的。
然而，我們現在的問題是：人生的意義，人生的目的，人生的價值，人生的道路是否就停在這一層呢？你如何把你與其他高等動物分別開？豐衣足食後是否安心在此停頓？人之所以為人是否這就夠了呢？這是要我們大學生，知識分子想的大問題。今天我們都受了時代沉悶空氣的壓力，擔心出路，許多人不愛想這類問題，視之為高調。我個人的境遇困難，但從未停止想這類問題，尤其在困難的時候更要想！前面所說的生物邏輯的條件沒有滿足時，固然到不了最上層。但滿足之後，高尚的理想和價值都可不要嗎？希臘出那麼多大哲學家、科學家、思想家，為後世之基礎，我們多麼嚮往啊！因為他們的精神生活是如此豐富。顯然得很，要人生完美，必須透過生物文化層再往上昇。生物文化層滿足了，我們還要真善美、理想、道德，這樣人生的道路才算完成。
這裏又生一個問題：假設我們已有很好的文化遺產，如中國的。就中國來說，我認為孟軻有氣象，他可說是一個標準的道德英雄；又如韓非子，思想那麼嚴格，觀察那麼銳利。如果他生在現代的話，就可能是一個邏輯家了。我們現在進一步提出一個問題：如果我們面臨一個兩難式，即是：如果我們要滿足衣食等生物邏輯，那麼勢必犧牲道德或理想；如果我們要維持道德或理想，那末勢必因難以滿足衣食等生物邏輯的要求而難以生存。處此困境之下，我們怎樣作決定？照現在的趨勢，一般人在有意無意之間，碰到求生與顧及道德不能兩全的情形，就為了求生而犧牲道德原則。有些人更因滿足自己的利益而犧牲道德，陷害別人。所以，道德就「江河日下」了。人吃粗一點尚可活下去。人群沒有道德來維繫，勢必難免成為「率獸食人」的世界。如何得了！在這樣的情形之下，我們怎樣處理？我以為孟夫子所倡導的「義」是救藥。他要人捨生而取義。這當然是一個極限原則。我們並不是說人必須動不動就犧牲生命來保全道德原則和崇高理想。我的意思是說：第一，我們萬不可在自己的生存並未受威脅時為了換取現實利益而犧牲道德原則。第二，在我們的生活勉強可過時萬不可因要得到較佳報酬而犧牲他人。第三，當我們因生活困難而被迫不得不放棄若干作人的原則時，我們必須儘可能作「道德的抗戰」，把道德的領土放棄的愈少愈好；而且要存心待機「收復道德的失地」。復次，我們有我們的好惡。如果經濟貧困了，我們的好惡是否就要放棄？是否就不能講？還有尊嚴問題，如人的經濟不能滿足，尊嚴是否可以不顧呢？諸如此類的問題，作為一個人，真值得想一想。
在各位現在這種年齡大家都有夢，胡適說，人生應該有夢，否則人生不是太不豐富嗎？現在你們都有理想，但出了社會便可能不同了，那時各奔前程，各種打擊，各種現實的考慮，都可能使得你把崇高的理想收斂起來。這就是現實在考驗我們的道德力，我們的理想性，我們對真對善對美的追求是否逼切。在世界上每一個角落都是如此的。我們是否能撐得住，就在這個關頭。現在是考驗我們的時候了。
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