投機定義 Definition of Speculation

原刊於2006.10.02

長久以來，投機 (Speculation) 有許多不同的定義。我採納以下Baruch對投機的定義：

Modern usage has made the term "speculator" a synonym for gambler and plunger. Actually the word comes from the Latin speculari, which means to spy out and observe.

I have defined a speculator as a man who observes the future and acts before it occurs. To be able to do this successfully - and it is an ability of priceless value in all human affairs, including the making of peace and war - three things are necessary:

First, one must get the facts of a situation or problem.
Second, one must form a judgment as to what those facts portend.
Third, one must act in time - before it is too late.

I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something - only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe. (1)

根據以上定義，所有經過精密計算的投資 (Investment) 都是投機。當然，這個定義不是多數人採納的。譬如說，價值投資之父Ben Graham是這樣區分投資與投機的：

An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative. (2)


(1) Baruch, My Own Story, Buccaneer, 1957, p.105.
(2) Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor 4th Rev Ed., Harper Business, 1973, p.1.